201904TSIAPR
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NEW EDITION
WATCH: April 2019's Two-State Index
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The Index Moved Down 1.3% This Month, Here's Why:

  • The Palestinian Authority continues to face economic uncertainty, still refusing to accept Israeli tax payments after Israel cuts funds related to Palestinian prisoner payments.
  • As the United States prepares to release it's "deal of the century", Special Advisor Jared Kushner backs away from the two-state formula.
  • New Palestinian government sworn in to office.
  • Netanyahu's Likud party win Israeli elections, receiving 35 seats.
  • PM Benjamin Netanyahu vows to begin annexing West Bank settlements and is in talks to form another right-wing/ultra-orthodox coalition.

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Palestinian Authority Nears Economic Collapse

How does this affect the TSI?

Israel's decision to freeze tax revenues related to Palestinian prisoner payments and consequently the Palestinian Authority (PA) refusing to accept any tax revenue whatsoever has put the PA on the brink of economic collapse. Israel continuing its violation of the 1994 Paris Agreement by withholding tax revenues moves adherence to the Paris agreement down from 6 to 5 and the Palestinian Statebuilding Economic parameter goes down from 4 to 3.

Relevant Links:

Palestinians on the Verge of Financial Collapse

World Bank warns Palestinian economy in ‘crisis’ over tax transfer standoff

EU Proposal for Israeli-Palestinian Tax Crisis: PA to Pay Prisoners Regardless of Felonies


Analysis: The Palestinian Authority Is Collapsing, and Annexation Could Follow
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The United States Prepares to Release its Middle East Plan as Kushner backs away from Two States

How does this affect the TSI?

Reports indicate the Trump administration will unveil its long-awaited Middle East plan shortly after Ramadan (June 4, 2019). President Trump's Special Advisor Jared Kushner, in charge of the initiative, said in an interview with Time Magazine earlier this month that the two-state formula had failed. This keeps the US parameter at its all-time low of 2.

Relevant Links:

Report:Deal of the Century will not include Palestinian statehood

All recent murmurings from the White House signal the Israel-Palestine two-state solution is dead

Analysis: The “Deal of the Century” for Israel‑Palestine - US Proposals Are Likely to Speed Demise of Two-State Settlement

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New Palestinian Government Sworn In

How does this effect the TSI?

New Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh took office revealing his plan for national unity, legislative elections, defending Jerusalem, and reviving the economy. With that being said, the Palestinian Authority's economic crisis overshadows the new government and bring the PLO cohesion paramater down from 4 to 3.


Relevant Links:

New Palestinian government sworn in amid factional tensions

Shtayyeh government to focus on economy of resistance

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Netanyahu Wins Israeli Elections and Vows to Start Annexing West Bank Settlements

How does this affect the TSI?

Netanyahu's win, his campaign promise to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and the likelihood of another right-wing/ultra-orthodox coalition move the Israeli Leadership and Government parameters down from 4 to 3.

Relevant Links:

Will Benjamin Netanyahu Annex the Settlements? Election Pledge Would Redraw Map of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Netanyahu’s ‘Annexation for Immunity’ formula

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Gaza Protests Continue, Islamic Jihad tries to escalate tension

How does this affect the TSI?

Developments in Gaza this month are notable and should be followed closely but at this moment Gaza-related parameters stay the same.

Relevant Links:

Palestinians injured as Gaza protests continue

Analysis: Islamic Jihad tries to dictate events in Gaza

Relevant Links of European Developments:

Europe must stand by the two-state solution for Israel and Palestine

EU Proposal for Israeli-Palestinian Tax Crisis: PA to Pay Prisoners Regardless of Felonies

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The Two-State Index (TSI) is brought to you by the Geneva Initiative, a Palestinian-Israeli organization working to promote a negotiated peace agreement in the spirit of the two-state vision. The TSI is produced by an Israeli-Palestinian team, and reflects a unique bilateral perspective.
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